In March 2021, a massive container ship—the Ever Given—blocked the Suez Canal for six days. It was a single, unexpected incident that cost the global economy an estimated $60 billion. The lesson? What once seemed improbable can quickly become reality, revealing how vulnerable today’s systems really are. And more importantly, how unprepared governments and institutions often remain.
Today, we face the most geopolitically unstable decade since the Cold War. In just five years, we’ve experienced a global pandemic, war returning to Europe, heightened tensions in the Middle East, and growing rivalry between global economic powers. Meanwhile, societal and technological shifts are happening faster than many governments can track, let alone manage.
In this context, strategic foresight is no longer a luxury—it’s a necessity.
When Decisions Come Too Late
The modern state wasn’t built for this level of uncertainty. Institutions still operate as if the world moves in predictable increments. But today, an energy crisis can be triggered by a single threat to the Strait of Hormuz, and artificial intelligence can transform industries in mere months.
Governments still plan in silos. They rarely use structured scenario-building, risk assessment, or impact evaluation across sectors. The result is policy-making that reacts to crises rather than preparing for them.
This isn’t unique to the public sector. European carmakers hesitated on the energy transition. Meanwhile, China invested early in battery tech, design talent, and AI. Today, Chinese manufacturers are not just competing in Europe—they’re leading.
The same applies to artificial intelligence: the chips are American, the talent is increasingly Chinese, and Europe is struggling to scale its investment.
The Case for Institutionalized Foresight
Strategic foresight and scenario planning need to become standard tools—not afterthoughts. Some countries are already showing the way: